Entering the oil price sensitive period

In the first half of this year, although the production and sales of automobiles both reached a peak of 6 million vehicles and hit a record high, the growth was clearly structural. Low-emission vehicles were hot sellers, high-end cars and commercial vehicles did not improve substantially, and car companies basically showed no increase in income. Increased profits. Even so, this model of selling cars with low-emission vehicles is increasingly challenged by high oil prices. At present, the price of oil exceeds RMB 6 per liter, and car sales have entered a sensitive period. At the same time, exports have fallen sharply and it is difficult to improve in the short term. It is not realistic to rely on exports to boost performance.

However, from a monthly change, this year's auto market is "better and better, better", 1.6L above displacement and some commercial vehicles are showing signs of improvement from month to month, the entire industry will not increase profits in the situation is expected to improve in the second half of this year .

Into the oil price sensitive period

In the first half of the year, due to the timely introduction of various policies in the automobile industry revitalization plan and the continuous release of policy favorable effects, China’s automobile production and sales volume hit a record high, reaching 59.908 million vehicles and 6.988 million vehicles, respectively, a year-on-year increase of 15.22. % and 17.69%.

However, a detailed study found that the growth of production and sales of the automotive industry in China is clearly structured: First, the development of passenger vehicles and commercial vehicles is extremely uneven. The contribution of passenger vehicles to the growth of automobile production is as high as 96.8%, while that of commercial vehicles is only 3.2%; It is the low displacement of passenger cars that dominates, while the sales of high-end cars are not obvious.

In the first half of this year, passenger car production and sales were 4,411,900 and 4,533,800, an increase of 20.96% and 25.62% year-on-year. Among them, self-owned brand cars sold a total of 955,300 vehicles in the first half of the year, accounting for 29.45% of the total sales of cars, an increase of 4.21 percentage points over the same period of last year. Since January, the market share of self-owned brand sedan has continuously ranked first. However, it is worth noting that the outstanding performance of the self-owned brand sedan market is due to the fact that the vast majority of self-owned brand cars are of 1.6 liters or less, which is greatly affected by the favorable factors of car purchase tax. As far as the entire passenger vehicle industry is concerned, the hot sales in the first half of this year are also due to the low-emission vehicles.

In this regard, Guotai Junan Securities analyst Zhang Xin analysis, the first half of this year 1-1.6 liters displacement production and sales were 2521028 and 2,566,396 units, respectively, the following one-liter displacement of production and sales were 631020 and 637920, respectively, the two together accounted for the output The proportion was 71.33%, and the sales volume accounted for 70.68%, which also accounted for more than 50% of all automobiles. It can also be seen from the brand that the top models such as Hyatt, Jetta, Elet, Xiali, F3 and Chery all have displacements below 1.6 liters.

However, this mode of driving sales by low-emission vehicles is increasingly challenged by high oil prices. Because low-emission vehicles are more sensitive to oil prices than premium cars, at present, Beijing No. 93 gasoline has risen to 6.37 yuan per liter, and oil prices will reach a sensitive period of six yuan. In this regard, Dong Yang, executive vice president of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, said that China National Automobile Industry Association has not participated in the pricing process on the issue of oil pricing. Domestic oil prices have continued to rise for two months while international oil prices have declined. According to the preliminary research and analysis conducted by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, when the domestic oil price reaches 6 yuan, it has entered a sensitive period. If the oil price continues to rise, it will have a significant impact on the automobile market. The favorable situation in the auto market has not come by easily. If the price of oil continues to rise, it will have a negative impact on the auto market.

Commercial vehicles have remained sluggish for the first half of the year compared with the popularity of passenger vehicles. In the first half of this year, due to the limited influence of the state's encouragement policy, the commercial vehicle industry maintained a stable growth in addition to trucks, but the overall performance of other varieties remained relatively low. In the first six months, commercial vehicles produced and sold 1.571 million and 1.655 million vehicles, with output up 1.64% year-on-year and sales volume down 0.52%. Among all commercial vehicle varieties, the demand for trucks remained the only growth, up only 16.53% year-on-year.

In addition, due to the sluggish foreign auto market, China's auto exports suffered winter. According to statistics from the Automobile Industry Corporation of China Auto Industry Association, in the first half of the year, a total of 142,400 vehicles were exported, which was a decrease of 60.21% over the same period of the previous year.

Sales and Benefits Left Lamp Right

In the first half of this year, although the sales volume hit new highs, but because of the low-emission cars that are hot sellers, high-end vehicles and commercial vehicles with higher profit margins have not risen. The overall efficiency and sales volume of the vehicle manufacturers do not match.

According to the statistics of Wande, as of July 22, of the 22 vehicle companies classified according to the Shenwan Industry Index, 13 companies predicted their first-half results, and only Changan Automobile disclosed, benefiting from the adjustment and rejuvenation planning of the automobile industry. "All policies, the company's car sales as a whole increased significantly. Chang'an Automobile achieved sales of 660,219 vehicles in the first six months, an increase of 34.80% year-on-year. Due to the predominance of 430,000 vehicles with a displacement of 1.6 liters or less, net profit did not coincide with sales, but increased by 8.84%-22.17%. In addition, despite the fact that *ST Changhe has lost money, due to a major reorganization of the company, the main business has been changed from automobile manufacturing to aeronautical lighting and control system manufacturing. Therefore, turning losses does not depend on the auto industry.

In addition to these two companies, 11 OEMs expected to report first-half results reported all worries: Jianghuai Automobile expects its performance to drop by less than 50%, and 4 other companies expect its net profit to decline by more than 50%, including heavy-duty truck leading Sinotruk. The net profit dropped by about 50%-60%; in addition, there are six companies that are expected to lose money in the first half of the year, including five companies such as Jinbei Auto, which will suffer the first loss, while one company will continue to lose money.

According to statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers on the economic benefits of the industry from January to May, although it is constantly changing, it still shows that the increase does not increase profits. From January to May, the main business income of industrial enterprises above designated size in the automotive industry was 1.07 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.53 percent over the same period of the previous year, and a profit of 60.155 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.9 percent. In addition, 19 key enterprise groups achieved operating revenue of 0.51 trillion yuan in January-May, a year-on-year decrease of 2.29%, and a profit of 320.42 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.94%, a decrease of 18.05 percentage points from January to April.

Of course, the reasons for the declining performance are not only unrelated to the sharp drop in exports, but also to the relatively small amount of low-margin emissions. Import and export data, according to the Automobile Association finishing Customs, from January to May, total import and export of goods national car of $ 22.013 billion, of which imports Amount 9.401 billion US dollars, down 29.25 percent year on year; export value of US $ 12.612 billion, down 38.15 year on year %.

Analysts pointed out that due to the downturn in the auto market in countries such as Europe and the United States, it is unrealistic to expect a boost in performance in the second half of the year, and it will take time to improve exports.

Institutional music watch the car market

Due to the significant increase in sales in the first half of the year, China Automobile Association has recently increased its annual sales of automobiles in 2009 from 10.2 million vehicles to 11 million vehicles. In response, Zhu Yiping, secretary-general of the China Aviation Industry Association, said that the economy is gradually picking up, and the country’s relevant policies on the auto industry will be seriously implemented, which will play a catalytic role in the second half of the year. Although there are some restrictive factors such as rising oil prices and the implementation of the National Three Standards, it will not change the general direction of the development of the auto industry.

From the data, the automobile market in the first half of the year is also gradually improving. One of the characteristics of the sedan in June was that the models in the 1.6-3.0-liter displacement range had faster growth than those in the 1.6-liter and lower models. Compared with the same period of last year, there was also a rapid growth rate, in which the market share was compared. The large 1.6-liter 2.0-liter displacement car sold 145,700 vehicles this month, an increase of 19.29% over the previous month and an increase of 17.23% over the same period of last year. The growth of medium- and high-emission cars also appeared in April. The increase in the proportion of high-end cars will help improve the current efficiency of vehicle companies. In addition, commercial vehicles also showed signs of improvement. From the same period of last year, commercial vehicles have been higher than the same period of last year for three consecutive months, and the growth rate has increased month by month.

There are also research institutions that are optimistic about the market outlook. The Shenwan report pointed out that in the second half of the year, as the recovery of medium- and high-emission vehicles and the regional recovery will spread to first-tier cities, the product structure will move upwards, and the sedan industry will increase from volume to profitability; at the same time, the capital market will increase from chasing sales to value performance. The growth of the company's share price, which is supported by performance and whose profit exceeds expectations, will perform well. In the second half of the year, with the increase in the rate of real estate operations and the improvement in the volume of road freight, the sales of tractor-trailers will be better than the first half of the year, and heavy trucks will recover in the second half of the year. The improvement of the automobile policy to the countryside and the stimulation of the dual policy of old-for-new trade will see a significant improvement in the demand for light trucks in the second half of the year. Due to the low cost, the light trucks' profitability will be improved significantly, and the light trucks deserve attention. With the narrowing of the production and sales gap and the improvement of exports from Europe and the United States in the second half of the year, the profits of the leading parts and components companies will improve significantly in the second half of the year.

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