On December 20, 2015, the China Automobile Dealers Association released its "Car Dealer Inventory Survey Results" in October 2015. In November, the comprehensive inventory coefficient of automobile dealers was 1.40, which was a 9% increase from the previous month and a year-on-year decrease of 23%. The inventory level of dealers was still below the warning level. Compared with last month, the dealer inventory pressure increased slightly.

I. Inventory coefficient is still below the warning line in November

In November, the sales volume of passenger cars was 2.197 million, an increase of 23.7% year-on-year and an increase of 13.4%. Driven by the dual factors of purchase tax preferential policies and increased demand for car purchases at the end of the year, the sales volume of the passenger vehicle market in November hit a new high this year. Compared with the same period of last year, the inventory level of dealers dropped significantly, which was a year-on-year drop of 23%. This was mainly due to the significant increase in sales volume of dealers, and the inventory pressure was significantly relieved compared to the same period. However, compared with the previous month, the dealership inventory level increased slightly, which is more related to the increase in vehicle dealerships in November. However, the dealer inventory level is still below the warning level, and the inventory pressure is not great.

2. The inventory coefficient of joint ventures, imports and independent brands all increased

In November, the inventory coefficient of joint ventures, imports, and self-owned brands all increased. The inventory coefficient of joint venture brands rose from 1.09 in the previous month to 1.18, up 8% from the previous month; the inventory coefficient of imported brands increased from 1.83 in the previous month to 1.90, up 4% from the previous month. The self-owned brand inventory coefficient rose to 1.87 from 1.69 in the previous month, which was an increase of 11% from the previous period; the inventory pressures of joint venture, import, and independent brand dealers all increased in varying degrees.

Third, there are two brands inventory coefficient more than 2 months

The survey showed that in November, there were two brands with inventory coefficients exceeding 2 months. Specific includes Jaguar - Land Rover, Chery Automobile.

Fourth, the market demand further increased at the end of the year

In December, the auto market entered the end of the year, and it is expected that auto sales will continue to increase. Manufacturers will continue to press the dealers. However, the inventory digestibility of dealers has significantly increased compared to the same period last year, and dealer sales are expected to increase in December. Reduced.

The China Automobile Dealers Association recommends that dealers still have to rationally estimate the actual market demand and reasonably control the inventory level in light of the actual situation, so as to prevent excessive inventory pressure and lead to operational risks.

Attachment: Description of Car Dealership Inventory Survey

As early as March 2010, the China Automobile Dealers Association proposed the construction of an “inventory early-warning system,” and began conducting regular inventory surveys of automobiles and dealers in July 2010. Through the purchase and sales inventory survey of automobile dealers, calculate the inventory status of each brand and the comprehensive inventory coefficient of the industry (inventory coefficient = ending stock amount / current sales amount), reflecting the current inventory depth of car dealers' dealer car brands, guiding manufacturers Arrange production rationally to reduce business risks.

The purpose of the inventory survey of car dealers: First, grasp the pulse of the market. By investigating the inventory status of car dealerships across the country, the overall status of the industry is monitored in a timely manner, and future market trends are forecasted. Second, decision-making is assisted. Through understanding the dealer inventory changes, it provides accurate information for relevant departments to formulate regulatory measures. Third, monitor operational risks. Timely reflection of the fluctuations in the production and sales of the automotive market, the rational arrangement of production plans for manufacturers, and the provision of reference for dealers in formulating marketing strategies and controlling business risks.

According to the prevailing practice of the same industry in the world, the inventory coefficient is between 0.8 and 1.2, reflecting the inventory is in a reasonable range; the inventory coefficient is > 1.5, which reflects the inventory has reached the alert level and needs attention; the inventory coefficient is >2.5, reflecting the high inventory, operating pressure And the risks are very big.

The inventory survey of dealers this month was mainly for the top 100 distributors of China's auto industry in 2012. It covers more than a thousand 4S stores in most provinces across the country and has extensive brand coverage. On the basis of the original mass production and sales of automotive brands, it has increased to 55 automobile brands.